Let’s continue to give the rookie time to marinate, to get comfortable with the speed of the game, and to pick up the playbook. While there are surely some who would like to see Sam Howell thrown into the starting roll, I’d offer that there’s plenty of time for that. At this rate, that may well be a top 40 pick, and the thought of giving Chris Ballard another high second - like we ultimately did in the trade that brought us Montez Sweat - makes me sick to my stomach. Once that threshold is crossed, likely around game 11 or 12, the Commanders owe the Colts their 2023 second round pick, as opposed to their 2023 third rounder. It’s critical to remember that Carson Wentz’s trade with the Colts included a provision that substantially increased the trade capital impact to the Commanders if Carson plays at least 70% of snaps in 2022. We should now focus on minimizing losses, and planning for the future. We will not be getting back the 2022 third rounder, or the equivalent of the 2022 fourth rounder, or the $28M+ we paid for Carson this year. If we acted rationally, only future costs and benefits would be taken into account, because regardless of what we have already invested, we will not get it back whether or not we follow through on the decision. therefore should not be a factor in our current decision-making, because it is irrational to use irrecoverable costs as a rationale for making a present decision. In economic terms, sunk costs are costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Executing a very expensive bad decision often makes it more likely that the decider sticks with it longer: Ironically, in many respects, that lower cost on the front end may have made it easier for him to do so. The question now becomes, does the coaching staff possess the proper balance of awareness and humility to recognize the folly of their decision to acquire Wentz at significant expense in the first place? Mike Tomlin - a better coach by essentially every measure - has already cut bait on Mitch Trubisky, who the Steelers paid a measly $5.25M this year, in favor of rookie Kenny Pickett. Right now, however, Carson looks an awful lot like he’s looked with the Eagles and Colts for the past several years, posting a 22-23-1 record with those teams over the past three seasons. The Sunk Cost Fallacy describes our tendency to follow through on an endeavor if we have already invested time, effort, or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.Īt this point, Ron Rivera, Martin Mayhew, and their band of merry men have put their reputations - and perhaps their careers - and lots of team resources on the line on the bet that Carson Wentz was the answer to their perpetually mediocre results. In investing, this is what’s known as the “ Sunk Cost Fallacy”: And, while some fans argue that the investment of those draft picks and salary capital into Wentz necessitate that we keep playing him - despite poor results - that’s a dangerous mistake. Turns out he hasn’t been, and that everything we gave up to acquire him merely adds insult to injury. Wentz' salary being the only difference- Timo Riske October 3, 2022
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